Climate change will also be on the agenda of the G20, which meets in Rome this weekend. The reason? Rising temperatures will have devastating consequences for their economies in the next three decades, according to a report released today called The G20 Atlas of Climate Impacts. But while the presidential delegation headed by Alberto Fernández prepares to take off to Italy for the Summit of State leaders, and the City of Buenos Aires experiences an unprecedented heat wave for October, the study brings an alarming data: the peaks of high temperatures sustained could last up to 60 times longer by 2050.
2021 is one of the warmest and driest years of the last six decades in Argentina
“Agriculture, tourism and coastal sectors are most at risk, threatening the food supply, millions of livelihoods and national GDP losses of up to 13% by 2100 “, points out the document that also states that with this scenario it is necessary to rapidly reduce emissions to avoid the worst impacts and stabilize economies. Argentina, according to the same report, “could experience systemic losses and negative impacts on growth due to climate change. GDP losses in the middle of the century could be up to 2.8% of GDP in a high emissions scenario. By the end of the century, GDP is expected to decline by 2.5% in a low-emissions scenario and 8.2% of GDP in a high-emissions scenario ”. Heat waves could last at least ten times longer in all G20 countries, and heat waves in Argentina, Brazil and Indonesia would last more than 60 times longer in 2050.
Climate impacts “would destroy the G20 countries if urgent measures are not taken to reduce emissions,” says another new report from the Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change (CMCC), the main Italian research center on climate change and National Focal Point. of the IPCC.
The G20 Climate Impacts Atlas, the first study of its kind, compiles scientific projections on how climate impacts will play out in the world’s richest countries in the coming years. It shows that, on a path of high emissions, climate impacts skyrocket to cause devastating damage throughout the G20.
Research shows that rising temperatures and intense heat waves could cause severe droughts, threatening the supply of essential water for agriculture, causing huge losses of human life and increasing the possibility of deadly fires. In certain countries, this could mean:
In India, declining rice and wheat production could lead to economic losses of up to € 81 billion and a 15% loss of farmers’ income by 2050.
In Australia, wildfires, coastal flooding and hurricanes could increase insurance costs and reduce property values by A $ 611 billion between now and 2050.
The report concludes that, if urgent action is not taken to reduce carbon emissions, GDP losses due to climate damage in the G20 countries increase every year, reaching at least 4% per year in 2050. This could reach to more than 8% in 2100, which is equivalent to double the economic losses of the block by Covid-19. Some countries will be even more affected, such as Canada, which could see its GDP shrink by at least 4% by 2050 and more than 13% -133,000 million euros- by 2100.
The CMCC’s Donatella Spano, who coordinated the report, said: “From droughts, heat waves and rising sea levels, to dwindling food supplies and threats to tourism, these results show the severity of climate change that will affect the world’s largest economies, unless we act now. As scientists, we know that only swift action to tackle emissions and adapt to climate change will limit its serious impacts. At the next summit, we invite to the G20 governments to listen to science and put the world on the path of a better, fairer and more stable future. ”
From coastal erosion to the spread of tropical diseases, all G20 countries are at risk from the impacts of climate change. Research shows:
In Europe, deaths from extreme heat could rise from 2,700 a year to 90,000 by 2100 on a trajectory of high emissions.
By 2050, potential fish catches could be reduced by a fifth in Indonesia, uprooting hundreds of thousands of livelihoods.
Rising sea levels could destroy coastal infrastructure in 30 years, with Japan losing € 404 billion and South Africa € 815 million by 2050, on a trajectory of high emissions.
On the contrary, the faster G20 countries adopt low-carbon policies, the less the cascading climate impact will be and the more manageable it will be. If the temperature rise is limited to 2 ° C, the cost of climate impacts in the G20 could fall to just 0.1% of its total GDP in 2050 and 1.3% in 2100. In the Agreement of Paris, signed in 2015, the countries agreed to limit global warming to “well below” 2 ° C; however, current policies and promises put the world on the 3 ° C path.
Laurence Tubiana, director of the European Climate Foundation and one of the architects of the Paris Agreement, said: “The window to act is closing rapidly. As the G20 countries incentivize the economic recovery of Covid-19 and prepare climate plans of Facing COP26, they are faced with an urgent choice: protect the world economy and rapidly transition to a low-carbon future; or derail the world economy by pursuing polluting policies. It is time for the G20 to turn its economic agenda into an agenda. climatic “.
With information from Journalists for the Planet