The shock wave of the resolution of the Permanent Council of the Organization of American States (OAS) of this Wednesday, October 20, would force the Daniel Ortega regime to force an internal agreement that tries to delegitimize the demands of the international community to restore civil liberties in Nicaragua, according to political analyst and former deputy Eliseo Núñez Morales.
The search for this internal agreement would not necessarily have to be through civic methods and true dialogue, but rather would be forced by repressive means, according to what was expressed by Núñez Morales, in the program Tonight.
“Ortega’s bet now is to say that a lot of people went to vote in elections that were not recognized by the international community, but that are recognized by the people, because there is a line of people voting. And besides that the economy grows, because I manage with the business sector. Here I have control of the situation, I have a political arrangement that allows me to do all this, ”explained Núñez Morales.
“All that then is part of a theater. This is what will allow Ortega to say that he is the institutionality, and not what the international community is asking of him. That the rest (in reference to the political prisoners) are people who prevented the country from walking in peace. That is the argument and the narrative that Ortega will have for the day after the elections, “he said.
This Thursday, a day after the OAS resolution, the regime’s Police reported the arrest of the leadership of the Superior Council of Private Enterprise (Cosep); its president Michael Healy and its vice president, Álvaro Vargas.
The resolution was approved with 26 votes in favor, none against, one country absent (Nicaragua) and seven abstentions (Barbados, Mexico, Argentina, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Bolivia, Guatemala and Hondurass).
The resolution demands that the Government of Nicaragua hold the next elections on November 7 “Under observation by the OAS and other credible international observation.” In addition, they demand “the immediate release of presidential candidates and political prisoners.”
For the political analyst, this resolution buries the arguments of the regime that the proposals of the OAS “undermine the self-determination and sovereignty of the peoples” reveals the lack of political will of Ortega to find a civic solution to the crisis.
“Ortega is not being asked for more than an election under international electoral standards. That is to say, an overthrow of the Government is not requested, no sanctions are even requested for the Government. What is being asked is that the population have the possibility of attending to cast their vote and that it be counted, and that the people can decide which government they want. There is nothing simpler than that and it is what Ortega has not wanted to assume since he came to power, “he said.
Possible departure of Nicaragua from the OAS in November
Núñez Morales believes that the strategy of the Ortega regime in the face of OAS Foreign Ministers Summit on November 10 It is to seek a way out of the organization, before seeing itself in a scenario of suspension of Nicaragua from it.
Nicaragua excluded itself from Wednesday’s discussion, again arguing that it represented interference in the country’s internal affairs.
“I would rather believe that Ortega would be thinking of leaving, before they suspend him. Obviously everything indicates that the votes are there for this, but if they suspend it it is immediate. Whoever leaves has a period of time, like the one Venezuela had, which is two years and that would allow it to remain within the inter-American system while this happens. So he has an advantage with getting out; buys time, “he explained.
“At this moment, Ortega’s strategy has been to play for the day. You are no longer playing a long-term strategy. What he gains with this is time, because he hopes that at some point the international correlation of forces will change, which will allow him to have international recognition or that before, I managed to force an internal agreement, for example, with the business sector and With this, generate the feeling that the country does not need democracy to be able to move forward, ”insisted Núñez Morales.
About the point of the requirement of credible electoral observation, points out that with this what is sought is to expose the regime about the little credibility of the voting process of November 7, since with only a little more than two weeks until the elections, it is impossible for a mechanism to be developed reliable observation.
“I think that what is done with this part of the resolution is to basically expose Ortega. They already know that he will not be able to call them, that there is no time for that and that what really makes it clear is that these elections do not resolve the issue of the social contract. The country’s social contract is broken, no matter how much the Army chief says, no matter how much Ortega says it, ”he concluded.