Venezuela dwarfs in economic and demographic terms

Venezuela dwarfs in economic and demographic terms
Venezuela dwarfs in economic and demographic terms

On the other hand, one of the causes of the economic crisis is identified as “the reduction in external oil revenues due to a combination of essentially domestic factors (PDVSA management, lack of investment, etc.), to which the impact of sanctions ”.

Poverty and inequality

ENCOVI concludes that food consumption in Venezuela has gone through different stages. From the period where the economic boom increased private consumption to 5% per year between 2004-2009; until the phases of greatest crisis (2014-2019) first due to shortages and then due to hyperinflation.

Although ENCOVI has only measured food consumption in 2020 and 2021, in general, food consumption in real terms per capita has fallen in this last year between 2% and 13% depending on the stratum.

All strata reduced their spending on food. The poorest stratum was the one that reduced its spending on food the most (13.3%). Which implies a greater adjustment sacrifice precisely among the poorest.

In this sense, the differences between strata are important. “The non-extreme poor spent 214% more than the extreme poor, and the non-poor 137% more than the poor,” the study concludes.

Additionally, these magnitudes of food spending show the insufficiency of monthly government transfers (bonds). On average, for the non-extreme poor to exceed the poverty line, a monthly transfer of $ 25 per person would be required. Currently it barely reaches 2.5 dollars, which would mean that they should increase its value 10 times and go from 2 to 3 members who receive it.

On the other hand, to get out of extreme poverty to non-extreme poverty, the monthly bonus per person would have to be 16 dollars, six times its current average value and go from 2 to 4 members who receive it.

On the other hand, ENCOVI concludes that the mobility crisis has caused extreme poverty to rebound. The mobility crisis affected the occupations and opportunities of the poor more.

“If we distributed all the income of the families equitably among them – the study explains – the average per capita would be 30 dollars per Venezuelan per month, that is, 1 dollar per person per day. Under this imaginary scenario of absolute equality, not only would we all be poor according to the international poverty line of 1.9 $ / p / d., But we would also have to double the national income and distribute it equitably again to remain poor, but not extreme “, concludes the study.

Decrease the workforce

Labor activity in Venezuela continues to deteriorate as a result of the continued decline in economic activity for the sixth consecutive year.

According to ENCOVI, between 2014 and 2021, formal employment fell 21.8 percentage points (4.4 million jobs).

On the other hand, the destruction of public and private employment has meant an increase of 20 points in self-employed workers. Today 1 in 2 workers is self-employed.

The demographic bonus is lost

The study indicates that the size of the Venezuelan population “was reduced to 28.7 million. Population growth in the last five years was negative at -1.1%. We are fewer because just over 4 million people left the country in the 2015-2020 period and

because there are 340 thousand births that did not take place, due to the potential mothers migrating ”.

Additionally, it is highlighted that the risks of dying have increased. Venezuela has the infant mortality rate recorded 30 years ago (25.7 per million) and the generations born in the crisis period (2015-20) will live fewer years than those born before (2000-05). There is a loss of almost 3 years in life expectancy. The pre-crisis forecasts gave a life expectancy of more than 83 years by 2050. Now it is calculated 76.6 ”.

The ENCOVI conclusions indicate that recent Venezuelan migration “continues to show a profile characterized by the pre-eminence of the male component at young ages, which left the country mainly due to the need to look for work and has been directed mainly to countries in the region. like Colombia, Peru, Ecuador or Chile. However, the pandemic situation maintains the frequency and amounts of remittances among the majority of those who send, and the percentage of returnees is quite low ”.

On the other hand, the young composition of those who emigrate is confirmed. Almost half of those who left the country during the last five years are young people between 15 and 29 years old, and 90% if the 15 to 49 age bracket is considered; young people of active age, whose main reason for emigrating is the need to seek employment in another country (86%).

According to the study, the second reason for emigration that is increasing corresponds to family reunification.

Furthermore, it is noted that migration “is contributing to the formation of transnational family units located between the places of origin and destination. The relationship with the head of the household in Venezuela shows that mainly the sons and daughters (57%) have emigrated and secondly the husband or wife of the head of the household.

In the case of remittances, the study concludes that 3 out of 5 emigrants send aid in cash or in kind to their home of origin. 57% of these shipments are made 1 or 2 times a month, contributing to some extent to the reactivation of consumption in recipient households.

This aid comes mainly through electronic transfers that are received in Bs (65%) and whose origin is an operation in foreign currency carried out between account holders abroad. Due to the effect of the pandemic, only 11% of the aid stopped arriving and 22% reduced the amount or the frequency.

Educational crisis

According to the ENCOVI conclusions, “the closure of educational centers due to the COVID-19 pandemic has had adverse effects on educational coverage at all ages, particularly those corresponding to initial and university education. Social inequities in learning processes have widened due to the adoption of the distance education modality without providing the necessary support to teachers and students, as well as to households so that they can carry out the support that is requested ”.

In fact, it is warned that educational coverage fell to 65% in the range between 3 and 24 years. In 2016, for example, educational coverage for this group of the population was 76%.

In the case of the population between 3 and 5 years of age, “access to initial education is reduced and with it the preparation provided for the development of basic competencies for the continuity of the training process.” While in the population between 18 and 24 years of age “access to university education is reduced. There is a mobility from private education that is impossible to attend to by public institutions (…) Weaknesses for the development of distance education, while exclusion is greater among young men ”.

 
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